Research Firm Predicts Big Ratings for ‘The Jay Leno Show’

Much of the talk around NBC’s talk show foray into primetime with The Jay Leno Show has centered on the chances that it could be an epic failure. But new research from the firm NewMediaMetrics (NMM) suggests otherwise.

Using predictive analysis, NMM is calling Leno a probable “powerhouse” at 10 p.m. In fact, the show is being called a “known unknown.” In other words, we understand Leno as a talk show host, but we don’t know really what his new talk show will be like.

Tuesday and Thursday nights are likely to be the biggest draws for Leno, according to the analysis, because of weak competition on Tuesday and the likelihood of A-list celebrities promoting big budget films on Thursday before the movie’s opening day.

Furthermore, success is almost guaranteed because of Leno’s core audience – a devoted bunch, according to NMM, more likely to watch Leno than anything else on at 10 p.m.

This is the fifth year NMM has predicted the outcome of TV’s fall schedule. Last year the company was 86 percent accurate in naming successful new programs and sure-to-be cancelled clunkers. When it first started making predictions, NMM called Fox’s Prison Break the year’s surprise hit, along with CBS’s Criminal Minds.